'Republican comeback'? Not so fast.

There's a great article about the supposed "Republican comeback" on CQ Politics today. Here's an excerpt:

Republicans have been working overtime for days now trying to come up with newer and bolder ways of describing the 2009 election as an unmitigated triumph — and a crystal clear sign their party will score a historic comeback in next year’s congressional races.

...But there’s a significant amount of countervailing evidence, not only in the relative handful of election returns from last week but also in the current polling about the national political environment and in the race-by-race assessments of the midterm campaigns for Congress, which by history’s guide will inevitably turn on voter views of the first two years of this presidency.

Although polls show widespread voter anxiety, especially about the economy, Obama is holding on to a base of support roughly equivalent to his 53 percent share of the popular vote a year ago. The Republican Party “brand,” badly damaged during George W. Bush ’s tumultuous second term, looks about as weak as it did then. And the GOP’s ability to seize the governorships of Virginia and New Jersey was mostly about the strong GOP candidates and flawed Democratic candidates in both places.